The Same Playbook, Many of the Same Players

John Murphy,  Chair, Tyngsboro Republican Town Committee

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Highlights

• Mike Minogue garnered 70.38% of the MassGOP convention vote, while Brian Shortsleeve received 15.5%, qualifying for the September primary.
• A significant aspect of the primary allows unenrolled voters to participate, which could influence the nomination.
• Shortsleeve is linked to Chris Doughty’s past campaign, with endorsements and support from similar strategists and treasurers.
• The Republican Party’s history suggests caution in assuming convention results definitively predict primary outcomes.
• In 2022, Chris Doughty entered the race with a moderate image, contrasting with Geoff Diehl’s Trump-aligned candidacy.
• Doughty initially received only 29% at the convention but nearly closed the gap in the primary, losing by just 11 points.

Call to Action

Time to get out and vote. Make your plan today. Vote in the primary September 1st.

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Four years ago, Massachusetts Republican activists left their state convention with what looked like a decisive answer. Geoff Diehl had won 71 percent of the delegate vote and the Party endorsement for governor. Chris Doughty had won 29 percent. Yet by the September primary, Doughty had turned that 29 percent convention showing into 44.4 percent of the Republican primary vote, with mostly negative attacks on Diehl. Now, Brian Shortsleeve looks to repeat that scenario.

Contents

• Convention by the Numbers
• 2022: The First Version of the Playbook
• 2026: A Familiar Setup
• Some of the Same Players
• The Baker World Connection
• The Convention Is a Warning, Not a Finish Line
• Electability for What?
• What exactly is the Massachusetts Republican Party trying to build?
• What Republicans Should Ask Before September 1
• A Warning Before the Primary
• Sources and Notes
• Convention by the Numbers

While Doughty gathered just under 30 percent of the convention vote, the numbers are even more dramatic this year. Mike Minogue won 70.38 percent of the vote at the April 25 MassGOP convention – which is very similar to Diehl in 2022. However, Brian Shortsleeve survived with merely 15.5 percent, barely clearing the threshold to remain on the September 1 primary ballot. Mike Kennealy fell just short, and his Republican campaign ended.

It would be easy for Minogue supporters to look at a 70 percent convention victory and assume the primary has already been decided. But Republicans made a similar mistake in 2022.

While the convention represented the preference of MassGOP Town and City Committee caucuses – which provide an opportunity for Republican Party members to represent their communities – the larger primary electorate, under Massachusetts law, allows unenrolled voters to take a Republican ballot without becoming Republicans. That means Democrats and progressive-leaning voters have an opportunity to impact the Republican nominee.

Shortsleeve barely made 15 percent during the convention, after many Minogue supporters had left the arena due to the very late hour. However, while Shortsleeve had minimal support at the convention, he is running in a political lane that looks eerily familiar to that of Doughty, with support from a Massachusetts Republican professional network with deep roots in the Romney and Baker years.

That alone makes 2022 worth revisiting before September 1. But the resemblance goes deeper than convention math.

Some of the people are familiar too.

Chris Doughty himself endorsed Shortsleeve. Holly Robichaud, who was Doughty’s strategist and spokeswoman in 2022, is now a strategist for Shortsleeve. Bradley Crate, who served as treasurer of the Doughty Committee, is now Shortsleeve’s campaign treasurer. Crate is also the founder of Red Curve Solutions, a firm long embedded in Republican campaign finance and compliance.

The same broad Republican network that has argued for years that Massachusetts requires a “particular kind of Republican candidate” remains active, organized and capable of competing in a primary even when that candidate loses the Party convention overwhelmingly.

Republicans should understand that history before they vote, not after.

2022: The First Version of the Playbook

Chris Doughty entered the 2022 race as a successful manufacturing executive and political newcomer. He emphasized affordability, fiscal management and executive competence. Contemporary coverage described him as a moderate who welcomed comparisons to Charlie Baker, even though Doughty sometimes resisted the moderate label himself.

That positioning mattered because the MassGOP was already deeply divided. Baker remained a popular governor with the broader electorate, but his relationship with many Republican activists and with then-Chair Jim Lyons had deteriorated.

Geoff Diehl represented the Trump-aligned side of the Party and entered the race with Donald Trump’s endorsement. Doughty entered the race many months after Diehl challenged Baker, and only after Baker had officially bowed out of the race. Doughty claimed to offer a different path – one built around the argument that a business executive with a less confrontational profile could compete more effectively statewide.

The convention result looked decisive.

• · Diehl won 71 percent.
• · Doughty received only 29 percent.

Both qualified for the primary, but the Party had unmistakably chosen Diehl.

Many at the time suggested that Doughty concede and join Diehl in support of defeating Healey. However, Doughty persevered with a campaign of continuous negative attacks on Diehl – essentially providing a proxy for Maura Healey, their Democrat challenger.

Diehl still won the primary, but with only 55.3 percent of the Republican primary vote to Doughty’s 44.4 percent. In a little more than three months, Doughty closed a 42-point convention gap to an 11-point primary loss with his negative attacks.

That shift did not happen because thousands of convention delegates suddenly changed their minds. It happened because the primary was a different electorate, with unenrolled voters who could select a Republican ballot – a relatively uninformed Republican voting base that was largely unaware of the pre-primary Republican caucuses and infighting but was reacting to months of negative campaigning from one candidate against the established Party favorite.

2026: A Familiar Setup

The names have changed, but the basic structure is recognizable.

Minogue is the Party-endorsed candidate after winning more than 70 percent of the convention vote. Shortsleeve barely qualified with 15.5 percent.

Once again, the candidate with overwhelming Republican support faces a challenger whose central argument is that the Party must think beyond its most committed members and nominate someone who can appeal to the much larger general election electorate. That wasn’t quite the position he held prior to losing so badly during the convention, yet he pivoted after his overwhelming loss.

After the convention, Shortsleeve dismissed the idea that roughly 1,800 delegates should settle the nomination and argued that primary voters should decide. His campaign has repeatedly emphasized electability and his ability to reach voters outside the Party’s base.

(The primary exists precisely because qualifying candidates have the right to compete. The question for Republicans is whether Republicans should choose their own candidate or whether they should allow unenrolled voters, which include Democrats and socialists, to decide their candidate. See my prior Substack article, A Republican Party Governed by Republicans.)

The similarity is especially notable because Shortsleeve’s political biography runs directly through the Romney and Baker era. He served as political director for Mitt Romney’s 2002 gubernatorial campaign, raised money for Romney’s presidential campaigns, helped raise money for Baker, and was later brought into the MBTA during the Baker administration to address its finances and management.

Some of the Same Players

The strongest evidence of continuity is not ideological speculation. It is personnel.

Holly Robichaud was a strategist for Doughty in 2022 and regularly spoke for his campaign. She is now a strategist for Shortsleeve.

A consultant working for two candidates four years apart is not unusual by itself, but Robichaud’s role matters because she has been closely involved in shaping both campaigns and their public responses. She is also particularly fond of negative campaigning against Republican opponents. (Rumor has it that she was fired from a previous Diehl campaign for favoring such tactics.)

Bradley Crate provides another direct bridge.

An October 2022 filing in the Office of Campaign and Political Finance record includes letters signed by Crate as Treasurer of the Doughty Committee. Today, Crate serves as treasurer of the Shortsleeve campaign.

The Boston Globe also reported that Crate gave Shortsleeve the maximum $1,000 contribution and described Crate and Shortsleeve as longtime friends with shared Romney campaign roots.

Crate’s firm, Red Curve Solutions, has worked for a wide range of Republican candidates and organizations, including campaigns from different wings of the Party. Its involvement therefore proves professional continuity. The same political professionals who helped build the 2022 Doughty operation are helping build the 2026 Shortsleeve operation.

Then there is the most obvious connection.

Doughty endorsed Shortsleeve in December 2025.

Four years after running as the business-oriented alternative to the Party-backed candidate, Chris Doughty, himself, is supporting the candidate now occupying a similar lane.

The Baker World Connection

Shortsleeve’s campaign also draws visible support from people associated with the Baker era.

Reporting on his early fundraising identified maximum contributions from former Baker energy secretary Matt Beaton and Baker appointee Paul Dacier. Gregg Lisciotti, who chaired the Baker-aligned Massachusetts Majority super PAC, also contributed.

Other donors and political figures in the broader Romney and Baker network have supported Shortsleeve or were active around the field of candidates that began the 2026 race.

Political factions are rarely formal organizations with membership cards. They are networks of candidates, donors, consultants, former officials, fundraisers and institutional relationships built over years.

The 2026 race began with more than one candidate tied to the Baker administration.

Mike Kennealy, a former Baker cabinet secretary, had his own deep support inside that world. His failure to clear the convention threshold removed him from the Republican primary.

Shortsleeve is now the remaining candidate whose career and political relationships are most directly rooted in the Romney and Baker governing network.

However, unlike Shortsleeve, and Doughty before him, Kennealy endorsed and supported his colleague Minogue and joined forces to help defeat Maura Healey.

Republicans who believe the Party needs to move beyond the internal fractures of the last decade should understand which coalition is attempting to return to influence through his candidacy.

In this instance, Minogue and Kennealy are attempting to unify the Party while Shortsleeve is still hoping to create and maintain his own faction.

The Convention Is a Warning, Not a Finish Line

I have argued that Republicans should have greater control over the institutions of their own Party. State Committee elections and nomination politics can be heavily influenced by voters who are not actually members of the Republican Party.

Until those rules change, however, complaining about them after an election accomplishes nothing.

Massachusetts primary rules widen the gap between the Party convention and the primary electorate. An unenrolled voter can choose a Republican primary ballot and remain unenrolled. In a state where unenrolled voters make up a large share of the electorate, a campaign built to reach beyond enrolled Republicans has a real pool of voters available to it.

Minogue’s 70.38 percent convention victory was not a random straw poll. Delegates were Republicans chosen to represent their communities from across Massachusetts, and they gave Minogue an overwhelming endorsement.

However, the 2022 election demonstrates why that endorsement cannot be treated as self-executing.

· Doughty’s convention support was almost twice Shortsleeve’s current percentage, and he came within roughly eleven points of winning the primary.

· Shortsleeve, on the other hand, while possessing a non-zero chance, isn’t likely to come within 30 points of Minogue in the primary.

However, a strategy designed around splitting the Republican vote and then abandoning the candidate after the primary all but guarantees a loss in the general election.

Electability for What?

The most important similarity between 2022 and 2026 may be the argument itself.

Massachusetts Republicans are repeatedly told that the central question is electability. In a state dominated by Democrats and unenrolled voters, that concern is reasonable. A Republican candidate who cannot reach beyond the Party base will have difficulty winning statewide.

But electability should be tested rather than assumed.

The Baker model produced two extraordinary statewide victories for Charlie Baker. It did not leave behind a durable Republican legislative expansion or a Party strong enough to remain competitive after Baker left office.

Personal popularity and Party growth are not the same thing.

That is where the question becomes larger than Minogue and Shortsleeve.

What exactly is the Massachusetts Republican Party trying to build?

· If the goal is simply to find one candidate every four years who can assemble enough Democrats and unenrolled voters to win a statewide office, then the old playbook remains attractive.

· If the goal is also to rebuild Republican enrollment, recruit candidates for the Legislature, strengthen town and city committees, develop future leaders and create a Party with an identity that survives any one candidate, then the standard must be broader.

The next Republican governor, whenever that victory comes, should leave behind a stronger Republican Party than the one that helped elect him.

That should be part of the definition of electability, not an afterthought.

What Republicans Should Ask Before September 1

The 2026 primary gives Republican voters an opportunity to ask questions that were too often postponed until after 2022.

Which candidate is most likely to defeat Maura Healey matters. So does which candidate will build the Party while trying.

· Who will recruit legislative candidates?

· Who will work with Republican town and city committees rather than treating them as useful only at election time?

· Who will help grow Republican enrollment?

· Who will respect the Party’s endorsement process even when it does not produce the preferred result?

· Who will leave an organization behind that can compete in 2028, 2030 and beyond?

Those questions should apply to Minogue as well. Winning 70 percent of a convention does not entitle any candidate to stop making the case to voters. A Party seeking accountability should demand it from the candidate it endorsed too.

The point of revisiting Doughty is not to declare Shortsleeve identical to him. Shortsleeve has a different résumé, a longer political history and a record in public management. Minogue is not Geoff Diehl either. The personalities, issues and political environment have changed.

The pattern, however, is familiar enough that Republicans would be foolish to ignore it.

A Warning Before the Primary

After an election, everyone can explain what happened. The more useful time to recognize a pattern is while voters can still act on it.

In 2022, the MassGOP convention gave its endorsed candidate 71 percent of the vote. The opposing campaign used money, professional organization and a broader electability message, and the convention landslide became a competitive primary.

Four years later, an overlapping political network is again backing a candidate who lost the convention decisively and is arguing that a different electorate should reconsider the activists’ choice.

Republican voters are free to do exactly that. They should do it with their eyes open.

The public record shows continuity in campaign personnel. It shows continuity in the Romney and Baker political network. It shows the 2022 candidate, Chris Doughty, personally endorsing Shortsleeve. It shows a familiar debate over whether the path to statewide relevance runs through the Party’s grassroots or around them.

My concern is larger than the outcome of one primary.

The Massachusetts Republican Party has spent too many years relitigating the same internal fight while its statewide organization weakened and its legislative numbers remained small. Restoring faith in the Party requires a structure in which Republican activists believe their work matters, candidates respect the institutions they ask volunteers to sustain, and leadership is accountable to the people doing the grassroots work.

September 1st will decide who carries the Republican banner for governor. Before that vote, Republicans should recognize the choice in front of them for what it is.

We have seen this playbook before. Some of the players are the same. The question is whether the Party has learned anything from the last time.

Sources and Notes

1. WBUR, May 22, 2022. Coverage of the Massachusetts Republican convention. Diehl received 71 percent and Doughty 29 percent. Source link
2. Massachusetts Election Statistics. Certified 2022 Republican primary results. Diehl 55.3 percent; Doughty 44.4 percent. Source link
3. CommonWealth Beacon, March 21, 2022. Profile of Chris Doughty and his moderate, business-focused positioning. Source link
4. Boston Magazine, March 1, 2022. Identifying Holly Robichaud as Doughty’s campaign strategist. Source link
5. Office of Campaign and Political Finance, October 24, 2022. Doughty Committee audit response. Attached letters identify Bradley Crate as Treasurer of the Doughty Committee. Source link
6. WBUR, February 19, 2026. Profile of Brian Shortsleeve, including Romney and Baker political history and Holly Robichaud’s role as campaign strategist. Source link
7. The Boston Globe, June 12, 2025. Reporting on Baker world support, Red Curve, Bradley Crate and early donors to the Shortsleeve campaign. Source link
8. Shortsleeve campaign announcement, December 12, 2025. Announcing Chris Doughty’s endorsement. Source link
9. WBUR, April 25, 2026. MassGOP convention results. Minogue received about 70 percent; Shortsleeve received 15.5 percent and qualified for the primary. Source link
10. State House News Service via Fall River Reporter, April 25, 2026. Detailed convention results. Minogue 70.38 percent; Shortsleeve 15.5 percent; Kennealy 14.11 percent. Source link
11. Secretary of the Commonwealth. Massachusetts primary voting rules. Unenrolled voters may select a party primary ballot and remain unenrolled. Source link
12. The Boston Globe, May 7, 2026. Post-convention reporting on the Minogue and Shortsleeve primary and the competing arguments over Party endorsement and electability. Source link
13. Tyngsborough Corner, August 6, 2026. “A Republican Party Governed by Republicans,” discussing Republican control of Party institutions and nomination processes. Source link